Words of Replicant Jesus

Nine million world –wide subscribers; although huge by North American standards it is still pretty small considering some of the Asian MMO’s that claim to have as many as 50 million subscribers, but the models are so different overseas that I am not sure if they are worthy of comparison. It is no question that World of Warcraft has consumed the genre, it is the 8,000 pound gorilla and is the king of the heap and still going strong.

And yet I see so many forum posts where members claim the game is dying, or losing steam. Certainly with nearly three years under the belt, the game has matured and is a vastly different experience now then it was at launch. Despite the criticism of its raid mentality, gripes about the PvP system, and for some MMO purist the “dumbing down” of the genre; it has brought a level of visibility to MMO’s that has not been seen before.

But there is one fact that I think many people don’t realize about these kinds of game. They don’t die of natural causes, they have to be forcibly put to sleep.

Ultima Online and Everquest still have sizeable followings, sizeable enough to require regular expansions and even graphics overhauls as needed. These kinds of games can cling to life for a considerable amount of time, and I dare say World of Warcraft will be no different. This game will still be in here in five years, and I doubt it will be the 8000 pound gorilla but if the numbers are any indication it will still have a very visible presence.

But simply World of Warcraft will not be killed by another MMO, it will persist for quite a long time. What really made the game a success was that unlike the games before it that basically cannibalized the small MMO audience, it opened the doors to an audience outside the dedicated MMO audience. There is no denying that the accessibility of the game was monumental in its success.

Future success in this genre will come from that kind of innovation making the games accessible and fun, and yet addicting enough to keep your core demographic hooked. I am not sure if the future releases will diminish the game’s market share, but hopefully they will do more then fight over a small segment of the gaming audience.